Question of the Day #498

"Coronavirus - Black Swan Or Red Herring"
From the headline of this article at .

上記の文で、black swanとred herringの意味は？
In the sentence above, what do "black swan" and "red herring" mean?

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Write your answer in the Comments.

明日、ここに答えを書きます。
I will add the answer and other remarks here tomorrow.

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解答

意味：
英辞郎によると、black swanは、

希少品、非常にまれなもの

そしてred herringは、

（人）の気をそらすもの［情報］、おとり

Answer

According to the Macmillan Dictionary, "black swan" means:

an event which is extremely rare and unexpected but has very significant consequences

and according to Merriam-Webster "red herring" means:

something that distracts attention from the real issue

Etymology/語源

Black swanDictionary.comによると、

オーストラリアで黒鳥が発見されるまでは、白鳥しかいないと思われていたから。

Red herring は英辞郎によると、

【語源】猟犬を訓練するときに、獲物が通り過ぎた匂いの残っている道と交差するように、匂いのきつい薫製ニシンを引きずっておいた。そうすることによって、猟犬が正しい匂いと間違った匂いとをかぎわけられるように訓練した。そこから、draw a red herring across someone's pathという表現が使われるようになった。つまり、「人が進むべき道に、薫製ニシンを引きずっておく」ことにより、「人の注意を他にそらす」のである。

According to Dictionary.com "black swan" got this meaning because of the following:

from the belief that all swans were white, before the first sighting of Australian black swans

According to the Online Etymology Dictionary "red herring" got this meaning because of the following:

Supposedly used by fugitives to put bloodhounds off their scent (1680s), hence metaphoric sense (1864) of "something used to divert attention from the basic issue;"

Examples

Black swan

• The problem with black swan events is that very often they are never repeated.
• 'September 11, 2001 is a classic example of a Black Swan. It was only a failure of imagination by most Americans (including myself) to never have contemplated beforehand the possibility of such a dreadful day.' CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR, 22ND NOVEMBER 2012
• 'His story is now one that many people want to hear; how he and his crew averted disaster when one of the A380 Airbus engines blew up in flight, something he describes as a Black Swan Event.' ABC, AUSTRALIA, 30TH NOVEMBER 2012
• In recent years there has been much focus on the so-called black swans in relation to risk management and decision making under uncertainty.
• ‘Black Swan’ events are by definition very difficult to anticipate, yet they are very much part of risk management.

Red herring

• The police investigated many clues, but they were all red herrings.
• The argument is a red herring. It actually has nothing to do with the issue.
• The plot of the mystery was full of red herrings.
• As Dr Smith left he said that the inquiry was something of a red herring.
• The unfollowed leads could, of course, be red herrings, as is true with all leads in any investigation. — cincinnati.com, "Death, lies and uranium: How an Ohio man’s mysterious disappearance in 1984 still haunts family, friends," 17 Mar. 2020

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